Thursday, April 9, 2009

Partially wrong prediction on the future of Islamic Iran




Bruce Bueno de Mesquita a specialist in the US foreign policy and international relations using a computer model based on game theory to predict future of Iran.

In this presentation he claims that CIA assessment confirmed that his model at “90 percentage of time has been right at predicting things whose outcome is not yet known when the experts who put the data input got it wrong”.

I know Islamic Iran would eventually comes to an agreement with the US, it is very clear and it is the best option for regime, they were crying out loud for discussions and at core an agreement with the US but your analysis about inside of Iran is based on wrong data so the output is just a failure.

The funny part of his presentation was “political winners and losers” section, totally ridiculous. Either he doesn’t know anything about Iran at all or experts who put these data together! Let me explain it; Ahmadinejad is nothing to be taken seriously in Iran, though he is representing revolutionary guards in Iranian politics but he is not a big deal now and won’t be, if there would be another person with strong revolutionary ties to replace him in upcoming elections. By the way, you need to take into consideration upcoming presidential election in Iran too. I don’t know how you missed it!

Velayati (Foreign policy advisor) part is hilarious, he has strong ties with Hamas and Hezbollah part and he is Supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s right hand but I am not sure that he would fit as an independent power element. Although he does have strong family ties with leadership in Iran but so many other wannabe leaders.

And last but not least about Moneyed Interests, Bankers, Oil people and Bazaaris; something that you need to reconsider in your data input is Revolutionary Guards and intelligence agency has had relatively strong pie of Moneyed Interests and after Iran-Iraq war, IRGC members involved in money making businesses legal and illegal in nation wide scale, they entered in every business sector including oil.

Now Sir, I guess you need to rerun your model with accurate input data and I am eager to see the results. No manipulations, only results!

8 comments:

  1. You have typical Iranian attitude, "Disagree no matter what", "Know it all(expert)" in every single subject on planet. You are true representation of older way of thinking among Iranian.
    Slow down and rather than being harsh try to open up a channel of conversation. This path will take us closer to the truth.
    Farzad

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  2. You know why comment section is open? Because informed people can leave comments and argue about facts.

    If you have anything else to add or even argue about above topic, I will read, otherwise you’re so close to what you blame me for.

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  3. Erm, he did mention that Ahmadinejad wasn't a serious force, that was part of his graphs at the end when he came in at the bottom. As far as moneyed interests and their interconnections with the govt are concerned, they seem to have been considered in the model and weren't treated as strictly independently distributed variables (though I have no idea regarding its working - he should have explained that instead of trying to show predictions from game theory as magic).

    The graph wasn't meant to show all those elements are independent. Instead it shows the power evolution of each element after taking into consideration all the dynamics of the system.

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  4. I wrote above piece after I studied his graph and analysis all together. Ahmadinejad hasn't been any force at the first place, only carrying Presidential title. If we are talking about

    There are huge difference between parties involved in moneyed interests and their interests in government, I don't know you, but those presumably experts, should know the difference between IRGC, Islamic Motalefeh Party and Oil people. All of them sit in moneyed interests group but they have different interests, values and influence in Iranian politics. Who on the earth puts all of them on the same category?!

    In my opinion if you don't consider those factors, your model fails but this show wasn’t really for presenting prediction about Iran. As I said earlier in TED, I am not going to venture that direction here.

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  5. Sorry for you. Look at what is happening, and see how much he was accurate.

    Only self-centered like you can make such a huge mistake.

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  6. What mistake?

    very funny comment though.
    It just cracks me up to see people leave their brains idle

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  7. It seems that you cannot read or understand events that are happening in Iran. Why bother analyzing Iran, then?

    He predicted that Ahamdinejad will win by small margin. With manipulations, it added up to huge margin. Yet, he was right.

    He predicted that eventually, Iran needs to sit down with US. Look at the events again. Iran is trying to come to terms with US.

    He predicted that quietists will be stronger. Look at the voices that hear now in Iran. They were quiet before. Even Khatami insists that he continues his mission. Just a couple of days ago, an award winning student raised his voice at the presence of Khamenei.

    His prediction that Bazaris will come forefront is yet to fulfill.


    He even predicted that Khameni would be the successor to Khomeni long before anybody could guess it. He was right.

    Please read the events without prejudice. Then, write.

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  8. PREDICTION PRIDICTIONS WHAT WILL WE DO WITHOUT PRIDICTIONS!!OK I TELL YOU THE NUMBER OF THE MAN WILL BE 52 HE WILL RULE IRAN FOR LITTLE WHILE THEN HE SHALL BE KILLED AFTER WHICH HE WILL BE SUCCEDED BY A MAN HIS YOUNGER BORN OF THE YEAR 65.THIS IS THE SECRET SIGN 4 7 7 7 .

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