Bruce Bueno de Mesquita a specialist in the US foreign policy and international relations using a computer model based on game theory to predict future of Iran.
In this presentation he claims that CIA assessment confirmed that his model at “90 percentage of time has been right at predicting things whose outcome is not yet known when the experts who put the data input got it wrong”.
I know Islamic Iran would eventually comes to an agreement with the US, it is very clear and it is the best option for regime, they were crying out loud for discussions and at core an agreement with the US but your analysis about inside of Iran is based on wrong data so the output is just a failure.
The funny part of his presentation was “political winners and losers” section, totally ridiculous. Either he doesn’t know anything about Iran at all or experts who put these data together! Let me explain it; Ahmadinejad is nothing to be taken seriously in Iran, though he is representing revolutionary guards in Iranian politics but he is not a big deal now and won’t be, if there would be another person with strong revolutionary ties to replace him in upcoming elections. By the way, you need to take into consideration upcoming presidential election in Iran too. I don’t know how you missed it!
Velayati (Foreign policy advisor) part is hilarious, he has strong ties with Hamas and Hezbollah part and he is Supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s right hand but I am not sure that he would fit as an independent power element. Although he does have strong family ties with leadership in Iran but so many other wannabe leaders.
And last but not least about Moneyed Interests, Bankers, Oil people and Bazaaris; something that you need to reconsider in your data input is Revolutionary Guards and intelligence agency has had relatively strong pie of Moneyed Interests and after Iran-Iraq war, IRGC members involved in money making businesses legal and illegal in nation wide scale, they entered in every business sector including oil.
Now Sir, I guess you need to rerun your model with accurate input data and I am eager to see the results. No manipulations, only results!